Macroeconomic Aspects in Resource-Rich Countries.

Natural resources represent a good opportunity for economic growth and development in many resource-rich countries. However, not all these countries have benefited from the wealth stemming from natural resources. The empirical evidence shows that the economic performance of many resource-rich countries is poorer than the average. This has come to be known as the "natural resource curse". The interesting questions are why do some countries perform badly despite their natural wealth, what are the mechanisms that cause lower growth rates and how can they be avoided. Different arguments have been proposed to explain the natural resource curse. Some authors claim that resource abundance elicits corruption and rent seeking. Others argue that the high volatility of commodity prices lead to macroeconomic volatility, and volatility harms economic growth. However, the soundest explanation for the natural resource curse is based on the notion of the Dutch disease. The first chapter of the thesis analyses the mechanism behind the Dutch disease. The extra wealth generated by the sale of natural resources induces an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a corresponding contraction of the traded sector. If we consider that most of the economic growth is caused by technological progress acquired through "learning-by-doing" (LBD) which is mainly present in the traded sector, a temporary decline in that sector may imply lower economic growth. A number of oil producing countries have attempted to avoid the Dutch disease through stabilization funds. The second chapter of the thesis analyses the economic consequences of stabilization funds. These funds permit oil producing countries to adjust government spending and cushion the domestic economy from the sharp and unpredictable variations in oil prices and revenue. Given that natural resources are exhaustible, the last chapter of the thesis looks for an optimal revenue distribution between current and future generations. Previous models based on the permanent-income hypothesis are enriched, including essential features of resource-rich countries, productive government spending and Dutch disease effects.Macroeconomics; Resource allocation -- Mathematical models;

Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries

Concerns about industry competitiveness and distributional impacts can deter ambitious climate policies. Typically, these issues are studied separately, without giving much attention to the interaction between the two. Here, we explore how carbon leakage reduction measures affect distributional outcomes across households within 11 European countries by combining an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model with a household-level microsimulation model. Quantitative simulations indicate that a free allocation of emission permits to safeguard the competitive position of energy-intensive trade-exposed industries leads to impacts that are slightly more regressive than under full auctioning. We identify three channels that contribute to this effect: higher capital and labour income; lower tax revenue for compensating low-income households; and stronger consumption price increases following from higher carbon prices needed to reach the same emissions target. While these findings suggest a competitiveness-equity trade-off, the results also show that redistributing the revenues from partial permit auctioning on an equal-per-household basis still ensures that climate policy is progressive, indicating that there is room for policy to reconcile competitiveness and equity concerns. Finally, we illustrate that indexing social benefits to consumer price changes mitigates pre-revenue-recycling impact regressivity, but is insufficient to compensate vulnerable households in the absence of other complementary measures

Projecting input-output tables for model baselines

This technical report describes a multi-regional generalized RAS (MR-GRAS) procedure to update/project input-output tables or social accounting matrices. The method is able to incorporate a number of constraints on row and columns sums as well as specific flows between economic sectors and specific taxes in an input-output table. This feature is particularly useful to reconcile information coming from different data sets. In the application described in this report, the method is tailored towards constraints with regard to the energy system. Specifically, we specify constraints in the updating/projecting algorithm that are able to reproduce the economic values reflected in an energy balance from an energy system model. Here, we show that the method is able to generate input-output tables that are forward projected until 2050 and can be used as a baseline in a computable general equilibrium model like JRC-GEM-E3.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy

This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways related to the availability of future technological options have been assessed for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and bioenergy. If CCS technologies would not develop, a 2°C pathway would have a similar mitigation trajectory in the first half of the century as a 1.5°C scenario with CCS.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Plan de contingencia para los servicios de medicina intensiva frente a la pandemia COVID-19

In January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new virus of the Coronaviridae family as the cause of several cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. The outbreak was initially confined to Wuhan City, but then spread outside Chinese borders. On 31 January 2020, the first case was declared in Spain. On 11 March 2020, The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. On 16 March 2020, there were 139 countries affected. In this situation, the Scientific Societies SEMICYUC and SEEIUC, have decided to draw up this Contingency Plan to guide the response of the Intensive Care Services. The objectives of this plan are to estimate the magnitude of the problem and identify the necessary human and material resources. This is to provide the Spanish Intensive Medicine Services with a tool to programme optimal response strategies

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Macroeconomic Aspects in Resource-Rich Countries

Defense date: 29/11/2010Examining Board: Prof. Arpad Abraham, EUI Prof Rick van der Ploeg, supervisor, University of Oxford Prof. David Levine, Washington University in St. Louis Prof. Massimo Morelli, Columbia University and EUINatural resources represent a good opportunity for economic growth and development in many resource-rich countries. However, not all these countries have benefited from the wealth stemming from natural resources. The empirical evidence shows that the economic performance of many resource-rich countries is poorer than the average. This has come to be known as the "natural resource curse". The interesting questions are why do some countries perform badly despite their natural wealth, what are the mechanisms that cause lower growth rates and how can they be avoided. Different arguments have been proposed to explain the natural resource curse. Some authors claim that resource abundance elicits corruption and rent seeking. Others argue that the high volatility of commodity prices lead to macroeconomic volatility, and volatility harms economic growth. However, the soundest explanation for the natural resource curse is based on the notion of the Dutch disease. The first chapter of the thesis analyses the mechanism behind the Dutch disease. The extra wealth generated by the sale of natural resources induces an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a corresponding contraction of the traded sector. If we consider that most of the economic growth is caused by technological progress acquired through "learning-by-doing" (LBD) which is mainly present in the traded sector, a temporary decline in that sector may imply lower economic growth. A number of oil producing countries have attempted to avoid the Dutch disease through stabilization funds. The second chapter of the thesis analyses the economic consequences of stabilization funds. These funds permit oil producing countries to adjust government spending and cushion the domestic economy from the sharp and unpredictable variations in oil prices and revenue. Given that natural resources are exhaustible, the last chapter of the thesis looks for an optimal revenue distribution between current and future generations. Previous models based on the permanent-income hypothesis are enriched, including essential features of resource-rich countries, productive government spending and Dutch disease effects

Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries

From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011–2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vulnerability of oil-producing regions to the oil price volatility. Gross domestic product (GDP) and government revenues in many Gulf countries exhibit a strong dependence on oil, while more diversified economies improve resilience to oil price shocks. The lack of a sovereign wealth fund, in combination with limited oil reserves, makes parts of Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable to sustained periods of low oil prices. Next, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of a 60% oil price drop for all regions in the world. A numerical simulation yields a global GDP increase of roughly 1% and illustrates how the regional impact on GDP relates to oil export dependence. Finally, we reflect on the broader implications (such as migration flows) of macroeconomic responses to oil prices and look ahead to the challenge of structural change in a world committed to limiting global warming

Baseline for the Global Energy and Climate Outlook

This collection contains the economic Multi-Regional Input-Output tables used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) for the baseline scenario. The Baseline scenario represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and GHG's emissions under the assumption that the energy and climate objectives of the NDCs are achieved. The procedure that was used to generate Baseline scenario is called PIRAMID which stands for: Platform to Integrate, Reconcile and Align Model-based Input-output Data. PIRAMID is a new methodology to project Multi-Regional Input-Output tables over time. This approach allows for integrating data from external models and databases.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Establishing limits to aquaculture in a protected coastal lagoon: Impact of Farfantepenaeus paulensis pens on water quality, sediment and benthic biota

Aquaculture is perceived by governments and international agencies as an economic alternative for poor communities in developing countries. Nevertheless, aquaculture must address environmental issues as well as economic and social aspects to achieve a sustainable development. Aquaculture with native species under semi-intensive conditions is a sustainable production alternative that minimizes the impact on aquatic ecosystems. An aquaculture pilot project with pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) was tested in a protected lagoon in Uruguay (Laguna de Rocha). Shrimp were reared in pen enclosures within their native habitat, where natural currents drive water renewal, and the natural food supply was supplemented with commercial food. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of F. paulensis aquaculture on the water and sediment quality and the benthic community, and to estimate the maximum number of pen enclosures that Laguna de Rocha can sustain while maintaining the minimal environmental impact. A Before, After, Control Impact (BACI) sampling design was followed and the results of abiotic and biological variables were compared between treatment site (control, pens, and two areas at 15 and 50 m from the pens) and timing (before shrimp addition, during culture and after harvest), through ANOVA. The most significant impact was found inside the pens, where ammonium levels increased and benthos species richness and abundance decreased. A nitrogen-based-model was used to estimate the maximum number of pens in relation to the minimal impact on the ecosystem. Simulation indicated that up to 13 pens could be installed in the southern area of Laguna de Rocha without increasing the usual concentration of total nitrogen in other areas of the lagoon. The BACI design, the statistical analysis and the modeling tools proved to be effective, simple and low cost instruments to assess the environmental impact in a protected area. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved